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Dec 23,2015 - Last updated at Dec 23,2015

UN Security Council Resolution 2254 on Syria, which was adopted unanimously on Friday, offers the most comprehensive and detailed roadmap to date to end the five-year Syrian conflict.

It enshrines the principles and points of agreement that emerged from previous meetings in Geneva and Vienna over the past few years.

Since the eruption of the Syrian crisis in March 2011, the Security Council had adopted 13 resolutions on this Arab country, but none succeeded to bring an end to the civil war there.

So what is different this time?

The latest resolution came out after weeks of intensive diplomatic activity that brought the United States and Russia closer than ever before towards forming a common vision on how to end the Syrian crisis.

Differences remain, but the two countries seem confident that they can keep the current momentum going.

The two countries’ resolve to implement the resolution will be put to test in the coming few days when the UN envoy, Staffan de Mistura, will take steps to prepare for face-to-face negotiations between the Damascus regime and the Syrian opposition, slated to begin in January. A binding ceasefire will have to take place concurrently.

With so many groups fighting on the ground, the challenge of bringing a halt to hostilities will be big.

While Washington and Moscow appear happy with the recent resolution, the two adversaries are not.

Damascus is yet to comment on the new plan, while the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) criticised the resolution for failing, among other things, to determine the fate of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The regime does not recognise the Syrian opposition in exile and considers all rebel groups as terrorists.

On the other hand, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar remain adamant that Assad should have no role in the transitional phase.

It will be up to the US and Russia to convince their allies to accept the new plan. That will be a tall order.

Assad’s fate is only part of the challenge. Deciding who, in the opposition, is a terrorist and who is not has become a major issue.

Jordan, which was handed the task of coordinating efforts to come up with such a list, was criticised publicly and privately when it submitted a proposed list to the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) meeting in New York on Friday.

Iran criticised Jordan for including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on the terrorist list.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described the list of terrorist organisations in Syria as “contradictory”.

The opposition groups, which had met in Riyadh last week, formed a coordinating committee and named its negotiating team. But Iran and Russia expressed reservations over which groups are to be involved.

As various players review their positions in preparation for the next phase in the Syrian conflict, it is not surprising that confrontations on the ground picked up pace in the past few days.

The regime, backed by the Russian air force, is trying to make strategic gains before an expected ceasefire. 

Activists blamed the Russians for carrying out one of the bloodiest air raids on Idlib, on Sunday, which killed more than 50 people, including civilians.

Government forces also launched a number of attacks in the Aleppo region in an attempt to regain control of strategic villages. Such confrontations will continue as each side tries to wrest control of territory in order to improve its negotiating stand if talks take place next month.

The fresh drive to end the Syrian conflict is related to the war against Daesh in both Syria and Iraq.

Washington and Moscow hope that launching a political process in Syria will unify moderate groups and create a situation where government army and rebel fighters could join forces to fight the jihadists.

Defeating Daesh has now become the number one priority for the US and Russia, putting the future of Assad on hold for the moment.

This may not please Saudi Arabia and its regional allies.

Riyadh announced last week the formation of a 34-country Islamic coalition to fight terrorism, including Daesh.

Syria and Iraq were not invited into the coalition, which underlines Saudi Arabia’s belief that Iran and its proxies continue to pose a grave regional threat.

The latest UN resolution presents a rare chance to launch a political process that could end the Syrian conflict that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions.

That process should begin with a ceasefire agreement and the start of lengthy and frustrating talks between the regime and the opposition, culminating, within 18 months, in the formation of a transitional government that will write a new constitution and hold elections. Whether Assad will be part of this transitional phase remains an open question.

 

 

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.

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