Putin in Syria

The rules of engagement in Syria are changing fast as Russia takes the lead and puts itself into the driver’s seat amid confusion and contradictions in the positions of the Western alliance led by the United States.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stepped-up his country’s military presence in Syria in a bid to bolster the rattled regime of Bashar Assad and kick in a new strategy to battle the pressing threat of Islamist jihadists.

Russia dispatched military advisers and almost 2,000 marines to Syria, specifically to an air base near Latakia. It sent fighter jets, tanks and modern weaponry to help the ailing Damascus regime defend strategic areas after a series of losses. 

Moscow’s bold intervention has stunned Washington and raised questions about its ultimate goals. 

Some analysts believe that Putin has moved in to prevent the regime from collapsing as various extremist groups, including Al Qaeda-linked Al Nusra Front, made key advances in Idlib, in the north, and threatened to march onto the strategic coastal plain of Syria.

Other rebel groups also made gains in the Damascus countryside, and there are no signs that Daesh militants are retreating in Raqqa and other areas under their control, especially in eastern Syria. 

The Russian moves have weakened the Western position. The immediate removal of Assad is no longer a precondition for a political solution.

This is the new stand taken by London, Berlin and even Paris.

For Europe, the influx of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees and fear of terrorist infiltration changed the rules of the game. 

Germany now says it is ready to mediate between Assad and his rivals to form a transitional government. Assad’s imminent departure is no longer on the table and his presence during a transitional phase will be tolerated. 

US Secretary of State John Kerry announced, after meeting Iran’s Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif, that he sees an opportunity to bring a political solution in Syria and Yemen.

The new US effort could bring Russia and Iran into an enlarged coalition that includes Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Ankara’s about-face is more likely than that of Riyadh. 

Putin is talking to all parties and he seems to have the initiative. The recent announcement that Russia, Iraq, Iran and Syria have set up a “joint information centre” on Daesh could be seen as a slap in Washington’s face, whose campaign to defeat the militants and train moderate opposition fighters in Syria has been described as ineffective.

For Russia, the Syria card is of pivotal importance. Aside from the naval assets Moscow has in Tartus, it now seeks to build at least two new air bases. This will give it permanent presence along the Eastern Mediterranean.

Defeating Daesh, which has hundreds, if not thousands of fighters from Chechnya, is a strategic goal for Putin. And the involvement in Syria provided the Kremlin with the chance to break out of its international isolation following its takeover of Crimea.

Some see Moscow’s stepped-up intervention in Syria and Iraq as a response to America’s regional failures in resolving the crises in both countries.

But Russia’s gambit in Syria carries risks as well. So far, Putin said that no Russian soldiers will fight in Syria. But can a rehabilitated regime army defeat the jihadists on its own?

And what will happen if the so called moderate rebels, including the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are targeted?

In Putin’s view, Russia’s support for the “legitimate” Assad government is in accordance with the UN Charter, but further military involvement could become a clarion call for more foreign fighters to pour into Syria.

Putin still needs to sway Saudi Arabia into accepting a role for Assad in a transitional government. 

And then there is the Syrian National Coalition, which has refused any role for Assad in Syria’s future. 

Putin will seek to divide the Syrian coalition and isolate those who insist on Assad’s departure. 

Then there are the rest of rebel Syrian groups who are not part of Al Nusra Front
or Daesh, but are against Moscow’s involvement.

Assad’s political survival will boost Iran’s intervention in Syria, something the Gulf states view with increased anxiety.

Their response to the latest Putin overtures will rest largely on his vision for the future of Iran and Hizbollah in Syria, and by extension Iraq.

Moscow’s growing presence in the region will alter the geopolitical structure of the region, which has been an American domain for decades.

There is always the risk that Moscow will repeat the mistakes of the past and find itself stuck in a region that is both volatile and chaotic.

Certainly the Russian adventure in Syria cannot be compared to Putin’s interventions in Chechnya, Georgia and the Ukraine. But for now, the logic in war-torn Syria has been transformed from regime change to recruiting that regime to fight terrorism. 

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.